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  • Joseph Barreca

AUD/USD Set To Move Lower?

20/07/2021


In the Forex world, the AUD pushed lower last night across most currencies. We've fixated on the AUD/USD for now as we see some great opportunities coming in for a short position.

Fundamentals:

Australia’s largest state, NSW, recorded 98 new locally-transmitted coronavirus cases on Sunday. Despite lockdowns, the government is struggling to flatten the infection curve and the scheduled end to stay-at-home orders on July 30 is looking more remote. Even if lifted on July 30, the orders would represent a month of lockdown in Australia’s largest city. If extended further the lockdown risks generating a contraction in Australia’s Q3 GDP. Meanwhile, Australia’s second largest state, Victoria, extended its lockdown today. Further tapering of QE by the RBA in November, when it next due to review the programme, is unlikely in this environment and we have already lowered our AUD/USD forecasts for QE. The RBA Minutes to the central bank’s July meeting released Tuesday will struggle to provide much new information for the market to digest. While the RBA tapered its asset purchases at this meeting and discussions around this decision will be of interest to investors. RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, has made two public appearances post the meeting explaining the decision and the parameters around further tapering of asset purchases.


Technical:

If you're apart of the Global Institute of Trading community, you would have received a signal on the 28th June 2021 to short AUD/USD with stops loss at 0.76655 and a take profit level of 0.70250. This trade is currently running at a 2.2x R/R at the time of writing this. However, you aren't short yet there is a lot more room for this to move lower as we have our eyes firmly set at 0.70250 level which leaves us with another 315 pips to go lower.


Overnight price broke the 0.73755 and looking for a retest of 0.73755 for a push lower.

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